1. Market Overview: Divergence Continues

On July 30, 2026, the memory chip spot market continued the divergence trend of the previous quarter. In DRAM, after months of price declines, DDR5 and DDR4 chip prices showed signs of stabilization, with some specifications even rebounding slightly. For NAND Flash, although still in a downtrend, the drop narrowed significantly, and the market generally believes the bottom is near. Meanwhile, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) remains hot, with prices staying high, prompting some manufacturers to accelerate production line conversion, indirectly affecting consumer DRAM supply.

2. DRAM Spot Price: DDR5 Bottom Bounces, DDR4 Stabilizes

According to feedback from multiple memory channel distributors, on July 30, the average spot price of DDR5 16Gb (2GB) chips was $3.85, up 1.3% from the previous week; DDR5 8Gb chips were $2.10, up about 0.5%. This is the first weekly increase for DDR5 in nearly two months. Analysis suggests the drivers include: 1) downstream PC OEMs starting inventory replenishment ahead of the Q3 peak season; 2) some module makers building low-cost positions early, boosting inquiry volume; 3) upstream manufacturers (e.g., Samsung, SK Hynix) continuing to shift some DDR5 capacity to HBM3E, tightening standard DDR5 supply.

DDR4: DDR4 16Gb chips quoted at around $2.45, DDR4 8Gb at $1.50, flat for two weeks. As DDR4 enters the end of its product lifecycle, demand steadily declines, but supply is also contracting, leading to narrow fluctuations. Server DDR5 RDIMM prices remain firm supported by AI server orders; 32GB RDIMM modules quoted at about $105, flat from last month.

3. NAND Flash Spot Price: Drop Narrows to Under 1%

The NAND Flash market saw a breather in the last week of July. According to data from TrendForce and other agencies, on July 30, the average spot price of 512Gb TLC chips was $2.85, a weekly drop of 0.7%; 256Gb TLC chips at $1.60, down 0.9%. Compared to the 3%-5% weekly drop in June, the current decline has slowed significantly. However, downstream demand has not yet shown obvious recovery, and consumer SSD prices continue to fall; the channel price of 512GB NVMe SSDs has dropped below $35.

Notably, the effect of manufacturers' NAND production cuts is starting to show. Production cut plans by Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron (totaling ~15%) initiated in Q2 are gradually impacting the spot market, easing the oversupply situation. But inventory digestion still requires time; prices are expected to stabilize by the end of Q3.

4. HBM Continues to 'Siphon', Consumer Supply Under Pressure

The HBM market continues to boom, driven undoubtedly by training and inference demands of large AI models. Customers like Nvidia and AMD have strong demand for HBM3E, prompting Samsung and SK Hynix to shift some advanced process capacity (e.g., DDR5, LPDDR5X) to HBM production. This limits the supply growth of consumer DRAM, especially tightening DDR5 capacity. Some module makers said that although demand remains weak, the supply contraction provides bottom support for prices, and consumer DRAM prices are expected to rebound in Q4.

5. Industry Analysis and Outlook

Overall, the 'ice and fire' dichotomy in the memory chip market will not change in the short term. On one hand, products benefiting from high-value scenarios like AI servers—HBM, DDR5 RDIMM—will maintain high prosperity. On the other hand, demand for traditional consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs remains weak, with inventory destocking still ongoing. The memory downcycle since end of 2024 has lasted over a year and a half. Currently, DRAM and NAND prices are near historical lows, leaving limited room for further decline. For buyers, this may be a window for gradual positioning, with room to increase low-risk mid-to-long-term orders. For investors, watch for Q3 terminal peak season performance and manufacturer expansion/diversion dynamics.

Data sources: TrendForce, DRAMeXchange, and channel quotes as of July 30, 2026.