On August 6, the latest memory chip spot quotes disclosed by TrendForce once again stirred the market: DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 spot average price increased by 0.33% from the previous trading day, DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 spot average price increased by 0.30%, while DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 remained unchanged from the previous day. The single-day increase seems mild, but when placed in the macro background of "Huqiangbei DRAM surged 14% in a single week, 16GB DDR5 memory kits soaring from 450 yuan to 1800 yuan within a year," a key signal about the direction of this storage super cycle is emerging: the slope of price increases is slowing down, but the story of structural shortages and transfer of pricing power is far from over.
Spot Market: DDR5 Leading Upward Momentum Remains, DRAM Price Increase Overall Slows
Looking at the granular-level quotes on August 6, the DRAM spot market shows a typical "strong high-end, stable low-end" differentiated pattern. As the mainstream specification for current PC and server memory, DDR5 16Gb grains continue the previous upward channel, rising 0.33% on a single day; in contrast, the previous generation DDR4 16Gb grain prices remained unchanged, while the 8Gb capacity specification only recorded a slight increase of 0.30%.
This quote structure confirms the judgment in TrendForce's August 5 storage spot price trend report: the upward momentum of DRAM spot prices has weakened since late July, with niche products like 4Gb DDR4 and 2Gb DDR3 only rising slightly in limited trading volume. In other words, the spot market is switching from "general increase" to "selective increase" mode, with capital and demand accelerating toward DDR5, large-capacity, and server-grade products.
Notably, the "deceleration" of spot prices does not equal "peak". When the time axis is extended to the weekly dimension, the market's perceived temperature is completely different—Shenzhen Huqiangbei channel data shows that DRAM spot prices surged 14% in a single week, mainstream 1TB solid-state drive terminal retail prices rose from about 410 yuan last year to 950 yuan, an increase of over 130%; 16GB DDR5 memory kits rose from 450 yuan to 1800 yuan, a surge of 300%. The linkage between spot wholesale prices and terminal retail prices means that price increases have been transmitted layer by layer from upstream wafer links to consumers' pockets.
NAND Side: Benchmark Price Breaks Through $30, but Rebound Momentum Remains Weak
Compared to DRAM's "high-level consolidation," the NAND flash market shows another temperature difference. Industry institution DRAMeXchange data shows that benefiting from AI demand, memory chip prices continued to rise in July, with benchmark NAND product prices breaking through the $30 mark, with single-layer NAND product prices rising 35% month-on-month—this is mainly because storage original factories have prioritized capacity allocation to high-end 3D NAND adapted to AI computing power, with traditional single-layer product supply contraction driving quotes upward.
However, TrendForce's tracking data this week shows that although 512Gb TLC Wafer spot prices increased by 4.55%, due to the lack of strong buying demand, NAND price rebound momentum remains weak. This contradictory state of "quotes up, transactions light" reveals the real weakness of consumer terminal demand: channel merchants' willingness to hoard has decreased, high terminal prices inhibit replacement demand, and NAND's increase is more "passive price increase" driven by supply contraction rather than "active prosperity" driven by demand.
Super Cycle Enters "Gentle Climb Phase": Full Perspective of Contract Prices and ASP Data
To understand the subtle changes in the spot market, we must return to the macro coordinates of contract prices and vendor ASP. The memory price survey report released by TrendForce shows that in the second quarter of 2026, general DRAM contract prices increased by 58%-63% month-on-month, NAND Flash contract prices increased by 70%-75% month-on-month; in July, DRAM contract prices rose by about 10% month-on-month, with a cumulative quarterly increase of 30%-50%, and server DRAM prices continued to hit new highs. At the vendor level, SK Hynix disclosed that DRAM average selling price (ASP) increased by about 30% month-on-month, while NAND average selling price increased by about 55% month-on-month.
This set of data outlines the complete trajectory of this super cycle: starting from the trough at the end of 2025, after several quarters of violent pull-up, the price base is already at a historical high. TrendForce expects that in the third quarter of 2026, DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices will increase by 13%-18% and 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter respectively, with the increase significantly converging compared to previous quarters. Analysts point out that after several quarters of significant increases, subsequent price increases must consider the affordability of terminal customers, and the quarter-on-quarter increase will significantly slow down from the third quarter—this is the typical feature of the "gentle climb" phase.
Pattern Change: Samsung Returns to Top, CXMT Becomes World's Fastest Growing DRAM Manufacturer
The price increase cycle is also a period of market share reshuffling. The global storage tracking report released by Counterpoint Research on August 4 shows that Samsung returned to first place in the global DRAM market in the second quarter of 2026 with a 39% market share, returning to 2024 levels; SK Hynix's market share decreased from 39% to 26%, while Micron closely followed with a 25% share.
Samsung's "return to the throne" is largely due to its traditional DRAM supply capacity and price advantage—when HBM average selling prices are under pressure due to HBM3E price reductions and HBM4 delays, the continuous price increase of traditional DRAM has instead become Samsung's profit stabilizer. In contrast, SK Hynix, with the highest HBM revenue share and earlier signing of long-term supply agreements (LTA), has lost some price elasticity in the price increase cycle. With the volume shipment of NVIDIA Vera Rubin and AMD Instinct MI455X servers, HBM4 products began to ship in the third quarter, and the HBM price decline is expected to narrow, and the competitive balance may swing again.
More worthy of attention is the rise of Chinese strength. CXMT has become the world's fastest growing DRAM manufacturer, benefiting from the strong demand for traditional DRAM in the Chinese market and continuous capacity expansion. According to its prospectus, CXMT's expected revenue in the first half of 2026 reached 110-120 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 612%-677%. News from the Huqiangbei market even spread that CXMT rejected Apple's price reduction requirements for LPDDR5X, insisting on quotes not lower than Samsung and SK Hynix, because Chinese manufacturers like Huawei and Xiaomi had locked in its capacity through high-priced long-term agreements—this is regarded by the industry as a landmark event of "domestic chips moving from price followers to price setters."
Divergence and Outlook: What is the Market Worried About?
However, the mild increase in spot prices and the optimistic industry narrative have not completely eliminated market anxiety. In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum monthly pullback of 54%, Samsung Electronics had a maximum pullback of 42%, and Micron had a maximum pullback of 33%—even though the giants delivered record-breaking quarterly results, their stocks still experienced a "good news is out" sell-off. The core market divergence lies in: this round of profits almost entirely comes from "price increases" rather than "shipment volume expansion," and once prices loosen, the speed of profit collapse is equally alarming.
Decomposed from both supply and demand sides, the support logic remains solid: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and other cloud vendors' 2026 capital expenditure expectations exceed $800 billion, and AI servers and data center construction provide core support for storage demand; on the supply side, original factories' capacity tilt to HBM and Samsung and SK Hynix's conversion of some NAND production lines to DRAM have limited the production increase of traditional particles. Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso even judged that physical space and infrastructure limitations mean that oversupply may not appear until 2028 at the earliest.
Conclusion: Price Increase Slope Slows, but Cycle Has Not Reversed
Combing through the particle quotes on August 6 and more macro industry data, we can draw a cautious and clear conclusion: the storage chip price increase cycle is switching from "steep upward" to "gentle climb," but is far from entering a downward channel. DRAM spot prices, supported by AI server and CPU memory demand, are expected to maintain a supply-demand imbalance until 2027; NAND, due to weak consumer demand, the sustainability of its rebound is questionable. For purchasers, inventory management and long-term agreement negotiation strategies will be more important than ever during the high price fluctuation period; for investors, they need to be alert to both the "price peak" expectation gap and the "niche product structural price increase" structural opportunities. In the second half of the super cycle, temperature difference and differentiation will be the keywords.
