US Stock Autonomous Driving Track: Competition and Cooperation of FSD v13, Waymo, and Zeekr and Investment Prospects

Introduction

In 2025, the US stock market continued to oscillate upward led by tech stocks, and the autonomous driving track is undoubtedly one of the most eye-catching areas. With Tesla launching FSD (Full Self-Driving) v13, Waymo accelerating commercial deployment, and Chinese player Zeekr entering the global stage through capital operations, the autonomous driving industry is moving from technology exploration to scaled operation. From a US stock investment perspective, this article will deeply analyze the technology progress, business models, and competitive landscape of these three forces, providing forward-looking insights for investors.

1. Tesla FSD v13: Leap from "Assisted Driving" to "Truly Driverless"

Tesla has long taken a unique path with its "pure vision + end-to-end neural network" approach. The release of FSD v13 marks another leap in algorithm, computing power, and data closed loop for Tesla. The new system no longer relies on HD maps, but outputs driving decisions directly through real-time video streams and Transformer models, significantly reducing intervention rates in complex urban scenarios. Musk emphasized in the earnings call that FSD v13 has achieved "zero intervention" driving in some regions of North America, laying the technical foundation for Tesla's Robotaxi network.

From a US stock investment perspective, the maturity of FSD v13 directly affects Tesla's valuation logic. Currently, Tesla's P/E ratio (TTM) is about 65x, higher than traditional automakers, but contrary to the market's perception of it as an "automaker," Wall Street analysts tend to view it as an "AI hardware platform." If FSD v13 can be pushed to all vehicles equipped with HW4.0 hardware via OTA (over-the-air update) and eventually obtain regulatory permission for driverless operation, Tesla's subscription revenue will grow exponentially. Morgan Stanley recently raised its Tesla target price to $400, with the core assumption being that FSD commercialization rate will exceed 15% by 2026.

2. Waymo: Moat and Concerns of a Commercial Pioneer

Unlike Tesla's "gradual" approach, Waymo chose a "one-step" L4 level autonomous driving from the start. Relying on the deep technical accumulation and financial support of Google's parent company Alphabet, Waymo has operated driverless taxi fleets in cities such as Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, accumulating over 20 million miles of driving, with fully driverless miles accounting for over 90%.

Waymo's core advantage lies in its safety record and operational compliance. Through cooperation with ZEEKR, Waymo customized the M-Vision vehicle specifically for shared mobility, built on Geely's SEA architecture, featuring redundant by-wire chassis and modular cockpit design. This partnership not only reduces Waymo's hardware costs but also reserves a potential path for its entry into the Chinese market. However, Waymo's business model still faces cost challenges: the price of lidar and computing units on each driverless vehicle has dropped to tens of thousands of dollars, but compared to Tesla's cost amortization through mass-produced models, Waymo is at a disadvantage in unit economics.

For US stock investors, Waymo's valuation is primarily reflected in Alphabet's stock price. Since Waymo has not yet independently listed, its value is hidden. But with Waymo planning to spin off via SPAC or direct listing in 2025, the market will see a pure autonomous driving company directly comparable to Tesla's Robotaxi. It is estimated that Waymo's valuation will be between $50 billion and $80 billion, which is reasonable considering its technology leadership and Alphabet's resource support.

3. Zeekr: US Stock Narrative of Chinese Smart Electric Power

As a high-end new energy brand under Geely Automobile, Zeekr has taken an independent path in the US stock market (listed on NYSE, ticker ZK). Instead of a head-on confrontation with Tesla and Waymo, Zeekr adopts a "dual-front" strategy: on one side, competing with NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto in the domestic market using its self-developed ZEEKR AD intelligent driving system (based on a hybrid solution of Mobileye EyeQ5 and NVIDIA Orin); on the other side, deeply engaging in the global Robotaxi supply chain through cooperation with Waymo.

Zeekr's unique value lies in its "hardware platform" capability. The SEA architecture has been opened to multiple brands, serving not only Zeekr itself but also third-party autonomous driving projects such as Waymo M-Vision and Baidu Apollo. This "selling shovels" model diversifies Zeekr's revenue sources and reduces exposure to single market fluctuations. In the Q1 2025 earnings report, Zeekr's revenue from technology licensing and component supply grew 237% year-over-year, accounting for 18% of total revenue.

From a US stock investment perspective, Zeekr's current price-to-sales ratio (PS) is about 2.1x, far lower than Tesla's 6.8x, but its growth rate (revenue up 84% YoY) and gross margin improvement trend (15.3%) are worth noting. Analysts generally believe that Zeekr's key catalysts are the planned L4-level city NOA feature in the second half of 2025 and the scaled delivery of Waymo M-Vision. If both are achieved smoothly, Zeekr's stock price could be revalued to above $30.

4. Competition and Cooperation Landscape: Three Paths, One Endgame

The three have both competition and cooperation in the end market. Tesla and Waymo are direct rivals in the Robotaxi field, but the alliance between Waymo and Zeekr forms a encirclement against Tesla. Zeekr is also balancing its relationship with Waymo to avoid over-reliance on a single customer. From a portfolio perspective, these three represent "disruptor," "stabilizer," and "enabler" asset types respectively, allowing investors to allocate according to risk appetite.

Conclusion

In 2025, the US stock autonomous driving track is at the inflection window from "technology verification to commercial verification." Whether Tesla FSD v13 passes regulatory approval and delivers on Robotaxi promises, whether Waymo can reach a cost inflection point and independently list, and whether Zeekr can replicate its technology licensing model to more international clients—these three things will determine the overall trajectory of the sector in the next two years. For value investors, Zeekr offers better valuation safety and growth certainty; for growth investors, Tesla's FSD breakthrough may bring excess returns; for thematic investors, Waymo's IPO will be the biggest event-driven opportunity.

In the era of AI and mobility revolution, no single technology path can cover all scenarios. Investors should maintain sensitivity to technology iteration while paying attention to regulatory policies, macroeconomy, and geopolitical risks. Regardless of which path ultimately wins, the 2025 US stock autonomous driving landscape is destined to be a thrilling beginning of multi-party competition and co-opetition.