On July 30, 2026, exciting news came from the memory chip market: global DRAM and NAND flash prices have risen for three consecutive months, with gains of 18% and 12% respectively. This rebound marks the official end of a two-year downcycle for memory chips, and the hard-tech investment sector once again enters a window of cyclical dividends.

Memory chip prices bottom out and rebound, supply-demand pattern reverses

According to the latest data from TrendForce, DRAM spot prices rose 9.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026 and continued to strengthen early in Q3. Inventory levels at leading manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have fallen below healthy thresholds, while capacity utilization rebounded from 60% to over 85%. On the NAND front, as the effects of factory output cuts emerge and enterprise SSD demand surges, the quoted price for 256Gb TLC NAND has risen from $1.8 to $2.2 since the beginning of the year.

Analysts point out that the core drivers of this rebound come from two aspects: first, the continuous demand absorption of HBM3E and DDR5 memory by AI servers; second, the explosive demand for high-reliability memory from new energy vehicle intelligent cockpits and autonomous driving systems. In the first half of 2026, global AI server shipments grew 78% year-on-year, with each AI server averaging 2TB DRAM and 12TB SSD, eight times that of traditional servers.

Hard-tech investment logic: The time to lay out at cycle bottom is now

As a bellwether of the semiconductor industry, memory chip price cycles often lead the overall semiconductor sentiment. Historical experience shows that each memory upcycle is accompanied by doubling of related companies' stock prices. At the current juncture, institutional investors are turning their attention to hard-tech companies in the memory supply chain.

  • Domestic substitution accelerates: After breakthroughs in 1βnm DRAM process, Chinese memory chip manufacturers are ramping up yields smoothly and are expected to contribute substantial revenue in the second half of 2026, breaking the overseas monopoly pattern.
  • New application pull: Edge AI, IoT, and smart vehicles continuously drive demand for low-power, high-endurance memory, creating incremental markets for NOR Flash, MRAM, and other new types of memory.
  • Limited capacity expansion: Past two years of industry losses led to sharp cuts in capital expenditure, with limited new capacity in 2026-2027. The supply-demand gap may widen further, and the price upcycle could last until the end of 2027.

Investment strategy: How to seize hard-tech cycle dividends

For investors, hard-tech investment is not blindly chasing highs, but rational allocation based on technology trends and supply-demand cycles. The following strategies are worth considering:

1. Focus on segment leaders

In the memory chip field, focus on leading manufacturers with technological barriers and customer loyalty, such as Samsung and SK Hynix dominating the HBM market, and domestic SSD controller chip companies rapidly rising in the domestic data center market.

2. Watch upstream equipment and materials

Memory chip capacity expansion will drive upstream demand for etching equipment, thin-film deposition equipment, photoresist, etc. In 2026, the global semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow 15%, with memory-related equipment orders growing over 20%.

3. Value price elasticity

Historically, for every 10% increase in memory chip prices, net profit elasticity of related manufacturers can reach 30%-50%. Investors can monitor spot price trends and inventory cycles, increasing holdings during accelerating price rises.

Risk warnings and outlook

Despite the optimistic outlook for the memory chip market, hard-tech investment still needs to be wary of the following risks: geopolitical tensions may cause supply chain disruptions; if end demand falls short of expectations, the price rebound may fizzle; valuations of some targets have already priced in the expected price increase. It is recommended that investors, based on their own risk appetite, participate through regular fixed-amount or batch position-building methods.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026 through 2027, as AI large model training shifts to the inference side and smart car penetration breaks 40%, the long-term demand resilience of memory chips will further stand out. Betting heavily on hard-tech is not just chasing short-term gains, but investing in the infrastructure of the intelligent era. For investors who can ride through cycles, the present is undoubtedly a golden layout period.